Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-10 00:00:00+00:00 62218.306655 65824.164491 69433.465763 73314.493594 77366.858522 81470.474373 85937.288995
2024-11-17 00:00:00+00:00 56325.700959 61822.441515 67482.500595 73737.406862 80446.937777 87419.088739 95202.827972
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 51903.318648 58655.711157 65765.716135 73792.045397 82582.168341 91897.440890 102496.780045
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 48683.713327 56383.458479 64643.700700 74134.276668 84706.150948 96089.642402 109242.170379
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 45878.296486 54302.340753 63489.617753 74209.286909 86327.690109 99556.751643 115043.044554
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 44131.621356 53248.677052 63336.889702 75267.382236 88928.256521 104018.560878 121882.812619
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 41909.049051 51504.238476 62268.967686 75162.662374 90104.923155 106793.943762 126757.507374
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 40681.041461 50824.388415 62345.039787 76300.901553 92646.374600 111080.270033 133332.262735
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 39361.590705 49956.076510 62131.193965 77038.647440 94673.985491 114744.061195 139177.543961
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 37766.963383 48679.891523 61366.072195 77062.276836 95811.499190 117337.167571 143757.247384
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 36225.002324 47397.267681 60529.914013 76942.143900 96728.942515 119636.013085 147969.503733
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 35442.731356 47002.147260 60725.652729 78030.135187 99064.634488 123596.167199 154145.819942
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 34539.433122 46433.962471 60698.063526 78846.642562 101089.498319 127221.745916 159985.582815
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 33485.069919 45636.529945 60355.889756 79251.869507 102600.197629 130230.859555 165104.302897
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 32325.705027 44661.372083 59753.846499 79300.940017 103648.453366 132667.343987 169531.697089
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 31386.425937 43930.956789 59425.342885 79661.606518 105058.888853 135531.849486 174479.485350
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 30373.640831 43068.077834 58896.342322 79740.678953 106096.982726 137928.928530 178856.572814
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 29888.210702 42873.325508 59200.767086 80861.135571 108430.428509 141920.504824 185205.981285
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 28889.485114 41966.550439 58560.507600 80750.228610 109194.704814 143963.295863 189153.865162
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 28508.119647 41866.693287 58951.994614 81955.448798 111623.032798 148079.550152 195690.711765
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 27969.618603 41535.183775 59024.877988 82736.499782 113505.992038 151519.148410 201401.887360
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 27147.350482 40791.839177 58532.958569 82761.514676 114405.268847 153717.641125 205564.074498
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 26302.672732 39991.604084 57941.764112 82634.336173 115091.041853 155636.805827 209374.360980